Created in the United States as a discount date that follows Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday will take place on the 27th of this month. Eight months after the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, this year’s event may be the largest in Brazilian e-commerce history, according to the Brazilian digital commerce association ABComm and the consultancy Ebit / Nielsen.
The shopping holiday gained its Brazilian version about ten years ago. On this Black Friday, ABComm forecasts a 77% growth in online sales compared to 2019, with a turnover that should reach BRL 6.9 billion. The estimate is the result of a survey carried out by ABComm in partnership with the consultancy Neotrust/Compre & Confie.
Maurício Salvador, president of ABComm, told LABS that the expectation is that this will be the largest Black Friday in the history of Brazilian e-commerce, since brick-and-mortar stores have not fully reopened in the country yet. Additionally, he highlights the increase in sales capillarity, the entry of more than 4 million new consumers in the online environment and 150,000 new virtual stores in the last few months, besides the diversification of products sold on the internet.
“Everything can be purchased via e-commerce, from pharmacy products to basic supermarket items, which generates even greater growth in the sector’s revenue,” he says. Between November 26th and 27th (Thursday and Friday), 10.9 million orders are likely to be made, according to the survey’s association.
Ebit/Nielsen projects a 27% increase in sales this year compared to the 2019 event. “The numbers for this year are very expressive as they reflect the consumer´s adaptation to online shopping. Amid this pandemic, e-commerce has become a safe haven to replace an efficient and practical way the physical environment,” wrote the leader of the Ebit /Nielsen, Julia Avila.
According to Ebit/Nielsen, in 2019, the Brazilian e-commerce revenue as a whole grew 16.3%, to BRL 61.9 billion, and Black Friday’s 23.6%, to BRL 3.2 billion. For this year’s event, the consultancy forecasts a revenue 38% higher than that of last year. Both forecasts from ABComm and Ebit/Nielsen are for the retail segment only, and do not include digital goods or types of products or services.
The reason for the outperforming numbers in the midst of one of the worst recessions and a record 13.5 million unemployed, according to Ebit/Nielsen, is that Brazil is in the process of an economic recovery. Interest rates at historically low levels and controlled inflation, even after the price rise caused by the pandemic, and the mitigation and stimulus measures taken by the federal government have helped consumers regain confidence over the past few months, points out the consultancy report.
In addition, the creation of digital accounts for the payment of the Brazilian emergency aid to more than 67 million unemployed, individual microentrepreneurs and informal workers was a factor that contributed to the financial inclusion in the country, which, alongside the growing behavior of buying over the internet should help boost digital commerce, says Ebit/Nielsen.
What to expect from the Brazilian consumer on Black Friday?
SocialMiner in partnership with Opinion Box made a survey of the consumer purchase intent for Black Friday, which interviewed 2,014 Brazilians between 21 and 23 October, showing that 48% of respondents intend to buy during this year’s shopping event (56% of them are from the upper social income classes). The survey has a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points.
More than half of the respondents who will buy on this year’s Black Friday (56%) said they will take advantage of the date to buy products that they would already buy, but at a lower price. Among those who do not want to buy during the event, 55% said they are saving or are unable to spend now.
More than half (51%) of the respondents said they are likely to search for products only on the websites, against 40% who will seek the best conditions both in online and physical stores. Only 8% should consult only brick-and-mortar stores.
And for the purchase itself, the choice of e-commerce is even greater: 77% prefer to buy on the websites and 39% would by the stores’ apps, against 39% that will conduct the purchase physically, in brick-and-mortar stores.
According to ABComm, the most popular categories for the date should be beauty and perfumery (100%), fashion and accessories (94%), furniture (87%), sports and leisure (73%), small appliances (73%), toys (68%), telephony (66%), home appliances (57%) and electronics (50%).
Companies, in general, also have optimistic forecasts for Black Friday 2020. Ozllo, a fashion and accessories marketplace, expects 300% growth in sales on Black Friday this year compared to last year. Synapcom, a company that provides management for e-commerces, projects that the number of applications can grow 164.6% compared to the same date in 2019 and, according to a survey at its base, the most popular sectors are tech and home (689 , 1%), consumption (131.6%), beauty and personal care (85.5%) and clothing (77.9%).
A study by Corebiz, an agency specialized in omnichannel, evaluated the behavior of the retail sectors at its base and reached the forecast that the cosmetics segment should grow 25.5% in revenue, compared to Black Friday 2019, reaching BRL 4 billion in revenue. The fashion segment will have a 45% increase in revenue, reaching BRL 9.5 billion. For technology, the estimate is for a 22% increase in revenue, reaching BRL 50 billion.