Netflix is expected to report its slowest quarterly revenue growth in nearly eight years on Tuesday, but the focus will be on its forecast in the run-up to new seasons of popular titles including Stranger Things and Ozark.
The company is spending billions to bring more original films and TV shows, as well as build mobile games in an effort to add subscribers in a post-pandemic world where it is grappling with competition from HBO Max, Amazon‘s Prime Video, and Disney Plus.
Netflix could lose about a million subscribers due to its Russia exit, analysts have indicated.
Analysts expect Netflix to add 2.6 million subscribers in the first quarter and 2.7 million in the seasonally weak second quarter, according to Refinitiv data, still below the average number of subscribers it added during the peak of the pandemic.
Analysts say the company’s subscriber growth will come from developing regions where it has cut prices, such as Latin America and Asia, while increased prices in the United States and Canada would fund new content.
“Longer-term, most investors struggle to see the catalyst for a major re-acceleration in net additions in FY23 or beyond,” Dan Morgan, senior portfolio manager at Synovus Trust, said.
Netflix has bought three gaming studios to diversify sources of revenue, but analysts do not expect a big bump from that soon.
“We are not very convinced that users will really view video games as anything other than a minor feature,” Morningstar analyst Neil Macker said, adding the effort is just a “distraction” from its core business.
Netflix‘s most formidable challenger is Disney Plus, which launched in late 2019 and expects to have about 230 million to 260 million subscribers over the next two years. Platforms like HBO Max, Apple TV+ and Amazon Prime Video have also seen a significant growth in subscribers.