Countries in Latin America and Southeast Asia will make up most of the top 10 list of fastest-growing e-commerce countries in 2022, according to the “Global Ecommerce Forecast 2022” report, issued by eMarketer | Insider Intelligence. The United States will take the last spot, being the only advanced economy to slide into the ranking.
According to this forecast, Brazil appears in fourth place, with an expected growth of 22.2% for e-commerce. Argentina appears in sixth place, with an expected growth of 18.6%. Mexico is also present in the top 10, occupying ninth place, with estimated growth of 18%.
The Philippines and India are expected to lead the global e-commerce growth this year, with estimated growths of 25.9% and 25.2%, respectively.
Also according to the eMarketer | Insider Intelligence report, e-commerce growth is expected to slow globally due to the recovery of physical commerce to pre-pandemic levels, and may register an increase of only 12.2%. Still, this percentage means the injection of $603.68 billion more into e-commerce than last year.
Similarly, the increase in new digital buyers will slow down in 2022: about 2.56 billion people worldwide will do some shopping online this year, but growth will be only 3.4%. Most of these new buyers will come from India, Indonesia, and Brazil.
Only three countries will have more than 100 million digital buyers: China (843.3 million), India (312.7 million), and the United States (214.1 million). The whole of Latin America is expected to have 260.2 million digital shoppers by 2022 and is expected to drive $167.81 billion in purchases.
When looking at e-commerce development by region, again Latin America emerges as the region with the second-highest growth potential (20.4%). According to the report, even with a 15% decline in growth compared to the e-commerce expansion in 2021, Latin America remains well ahead of the other regions and actually very close to the first place, Southeast Asia (20.6%). All Latin American countries will grow their e-commerce by at least double digits every year until 2025., says the report.
The potential for e-commerce growth in Latin America and Southeast Asia is due to the fact that in both regions “they are still seeing increases in numbers of digital buyers and are home to expanding middle classes.”
Mobile has become a major driver of e-commerce in Latin America
Annual research issued by EBANX, a Brazilian payments fintech with operations in the global market, Beyond Borders 2021/2022 showed that the surge of e-commerce in Latin America has to do with two main factors. First, the massive uptake of digital payment methods, such as digital wallets and, in Brazil, PIX, which quickly became the new favorite among Brazilians, beating out the traditional payment methods like bank slips or TEDs (as same-day transfers in Brazil are named).
And second, the widespread of so-called “mobile commerce” – either through e-commerce apps or social networks (social commerce). The study states that by the end of this year, almost 60% of all online shopping in Latin America will be paid for over the cell phone.