Note

September 05, 20 - 2:50 pm - Reuters

Argentina’s GDP to fall 12% in 2020, central bank poll says

Argentina’s economy is likely to contract 12% in 2020 due to the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, a central bank survey of economists showed, a slightly more positive outlook than a month earlier.

The forecast compares to the 12.5% estimated the previous month in a survey of specialists by the Argentine Central Bank (BCRA).

The economists saw the economy contracting 16.6% in the second quarter, from the 17% previously calculated, while in the third quarter they saw it growing 8.7%, compared to a previously anticipated 8%.

The growth expectation for the remaining quarters of 2020 suggests that the effect of the coronavirus pandemic is perceived as transitory.

Argentina’s Central Bank statement

As of Friday, Argentina had registered 451,198 cases of coronavirus and 9,468 deaths. The second largest economy in South America has a population of about 45 million inhabitants.

The economists polled by the central bank saw inflation for 2020 at 37.8%, and inflation in August at 2.7%.

They saw the average nominal exchange rate in Argentina reaching ARS 84.3 to the dollar in December 2020 and ARS 122 in the same month of 2021.

The survey was carried out among consulting firms, research centers, financial entities and analysts between August 27 and 31.