Brazil was the least affected country in Latin America by the pandemic during the second quarter of 2020, but according to an analysis made by Oxford Economics, it may take longer than some neighbors’ to recover. 

On Tuesday, it was revealed that Brazil’s GDP fell 9.7% in the three months up to June 30 over the previous quarter. On an annual basis, the Brazilian economy shrank by 11% year on year.

“But starting on pole position does not mean Brazil will win the race. Data for the first half of Q3 suggest the recovery lost momentum from the surge in June”, assessed the consultancy. “And as government aid is withdrawn in 2021, we see the economic recovery curve flattening further.”

Oxford’s analysts forecast Brazil to recover its pre-pandemic GDP only by the first quarter of 2022, three months after Chile and Peru.

The upside surprise was the resilience of Brazilian exports and imports, says Oxford Economics. The consultancy expects a GDP loss of 4.6% in 2020 for the country.