Banxico, Mexico’s central bank, is predicting the country’s economy could contract by as much as 8.8% in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic. Presenting its latest quarterly report, Banxico said a recovery was likely next year.
Cautioning that forecasts were difficult to make during the pandemic, the bank gave three scenarios for the outbreak’s impact on Latin America’s second-largest economy. Depending on the severity of the recession, and whether the recovery is V-shaped or U-shaped, the bank forecast 2020 economic growth of between -8.8% and -4.6%.
Mexico’s economy may suffer its biggest contraction in almost nine decades this year, with private sector analysts forecasting it will shrink by up to 10% or more, according to Reuters.
Banxico also revised its inflation forecasts to a higher rate, in part due to a depreciation of the peso currency, which has fallen by almost 15% against the U.S. dollar since February.