The Swiss bank UBS forecasts that the peak of the pandemic of COVID-19 in Brazil will occur in the last week of April, when the number of official cases reaches 65,000, according to a report by Valor Econômico. The estimate considers the current cases of coronavirus infections in the country and the international experience of social distancing.

With 36,600 cases on April 18, Brazil is the 11th nation with most infections among the 42 countries that registered more than 1,000 cases of the disease by March 31. UBS estimates that the actual number of cases is in the range of 370,000. When it reaches the official peak of 65,000 the real number will have reached 775,000.

This discrepancy between official and estimated numbers occurs because Brazil lags behind in testing for coronavirus, with only 296 tests per million inhabitants, against 10,333 per million in the United States or 20,629 per million in Germany.